TexasCowboy
05-27-2008, 08:21 AM
Posted by Chase Stuart on Monday, May 26, 2008
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=531
Which NFL teams have done the best job drafting in recent history? It’s way too early to grade any of the last three drafts, but we can start looking at drafts from 2005 and go back about ten years. That should give us a good look at which teams have “overperformed” and which teams have “underperformed” relative to their draft positions in recent years. We can also see which picks were the biggest “steals” and which were the biggest “busts” over that time.
Let’s get one thing out of the way. Any list that doesn’t have Tom Brady as the biggest steal and Ryan Leaf as the biggest bust is just wrong. We all know that. Fortunately, my system — which combines Doug’s Approximate Value System for grading NFL players and my NFL draft value system which assigns appropriate value to each draft pick — does just that.
Before I get to the nuts and bolts of how I graded a player, let’s skip to what everyone wants to see first — the best 35 draft picks from 1996-2005. The middle column shows what pick the player was selected with, and the third column shows that player’s value (explained in a bit).
Tom Brady 199 2.21
Zach Thomas 154 2.07
Jason Taylor 73 2.06
Terrell Owens 89 1.89
Ronde Barber 66 1.84
Ray Lewis 26 1.81
Tiki Barber 36 1.67
Randy Moss 21 1.65
La'Roi Glover 166 1.62
Marvin Harrison 19 1.60
Lofa Tatupu 45 1.50
Matt Hasselbeck 187 1.48
Sam Madison 44 1.45
Lance Briggs 68 1.41
LaDainian Tomlinson 5 1.41
Brian Westbrook 91 1.40
Ahman Green 76 1.39
Hines Ward 92 1.37
Joey Porter 73 1.36
Trent Cole 146 1.35
Clinton Portis 51 1.35
Peyton Manning 1 1.33
Edgerrin James 4 1.33
Adalius Thomas 186 1.33
Aaron Brooks 131 1.32
Shane Olivea 209 1.30
Frank Gore 65 1.29
Jared Allen 126 1.28
Derrick Mason 98 1.28
Donald Driver 213 1.26
Chad Johnson 36 1.24
Brian Urlacher 9 1.23
Donnie Edwards 98 1.22
Darren Sharper 60 1.22
Jeremiah Trotter 72 1.21
And perhaps more itneresting, the worst 35 picks, from 35th worst to worst.
Tom Knight 9 -0.74
Willie Middlebrooks 24 -0.74
Bryant Westbrook 5 -0.74
Troy Williamson 7 -0.75
Nathan Davis 32 -0.75
Dimitrius Underwood 29 -0.75
Leon Bender 31 -0.75
Andre T. Johnson 30 -0.75
Michael Haynes 14 -0.75
David Pollack 17 -0.75
Aaron Rodgers 24 -0.77
Jason Peter 14 -0.77
Jim Druckenmiller 26 -0.79
Ryan Sims 6 -0.80
Mike D. Williams 4 -0.80
Mike Williams 10 -0.81
Reggie McGrew 24 -0.81
Jerome McDougle 15 -0.87
Cade McNown 12 -0.88
David Terrell 8 -0.89
Michael Booker 11 -0.89
Cedric Jones 5 -0.89
Johnathan Sullivan 6 -0.92
Wendell Bryant 12 -0.92
Yatil Green 15 -0.94
Lawrence Phillips 6 -1.03
Jamal Reynolds 10 -1.06
Tim Couch 1 -1.08
Curtis Enis 5 -1.09
Courtney Brown 1 -1.10
Andre Wadsworth 3 -1.19
Alex Smith 1 -1.33
Charles Rogers 2 -1.46
Akili Smith 3 -1.47
Ryan Leaf 2 -1.54
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=531
Which NFL teams have done the best job drafting in recent history? It’s way too early to grade any of the last three drafts, but we can start looking at drafts from 2005 and go back about ten years. That should give us a good look at which teams have “overperformed” and which teams have “underperformed” relative to their draft positions in recent years. We can also see which picks were the biggest “steals” and which were the biggest “busts” over that time.
Let’s get one thing out of the way. Any list that doesn’t have Tom Brady as the biggest steal and Ryan Leaf as the biggest bust is just wrong. We all know that. Fortunately, my system — which combines Doug’s Approximate Value System for grading NFL players and my NFL draft value system which assigns appropriate value to each draft pick — does just that.
Before I get to the nuts and bolts of how I graded a player, let’s skip to what everyone wants to see first — the best 35 draft picks from 1996-2005. The middle column shows what pick the player was selected with, and the third column shows that player’s value (explained in a bit).
Tom Brady 199 2.21
Zach Thomas 154 2.07
Jason Taylor 73 2.06
Terrell Owens 89 1.89
Ronde Barber 66 1.84
Ray Lewis 26 1.81
Tiki Barber 36 1.67
Randy Moss 21 1.65
La'Roi Glover 166 1.62
Marvin Harrison 19 1.60
Lofa Tatupu 45 1.50
Matt Hasselbeck 187 1.48
Sam Madison 44 1.45
Lance Briggs 68 1.41
LaDainian Tomlinson 5 1.41
Brian Westbrook 91 1.40
Ahman Green 76 1.39
Hines Ward 92 1.37
Joey Porter 73 1.36
Trent Cole 146 1.35
Clinton Portis 51 1.35
Peyton Manning 1 1.33
Edgerrin James 4 1.33
Adalius Thomas 186 1.33
Aaron Brooks 131 1.32
Shane Olivea 209 1.30
Frank Gore 65 1.29
Jared Allen 126 1.28
Derrick Mason 98 1.28
Donald Driver 213 1.26
Chad Johnson 36 1.24
Brian Urlacher 9 1.23
Donnie Edwards 98 1.22
Darren Sharper 60 1.22
Jeremiah Trotter 72 1.21
And perhaps more itneresting, the worst 35 picks, from 35th worst to worst.
Tom Knight 9 -0.74
Willie Middlebrooks 24 -0.74
Bryant Westbrook 5 -0.74
Troy Williamson 7 -0.75
Nathan Davis 32 -0.75
Dimitrius Underwood 29 -0.75
Leon Bender 31 -0.75
Andre T. Johnson 30 -0.75
Michael Haynes 14 -0.75
David Pollack 17 -0.75
Aaron Rodgers 24 -0.77
Jason Peter 14 -0.77
Jim Druckenmiller 26 -0.79
Ryan Sims 6 -0.80
Mike D. Williams 4 -0.80
Mike Williams 10 -0.81
Reggie McGrew 24 -0.81
Jerome McDougle 15 -0.87
Cade McNown 12 -0.88
David Terrell 8 -0.89
Michael Booker 11 -0.89
Cedric Jones 5 -0.89
Johnathan Sullivan 6 -0.92
Wendell Bryant 12 -0.92
Yatil Green 15 -0.94
Lawrence Phillips 6 -1.03
Jamal Reynolds 10 -1.06
Tim Couch 1 -1.08
Curtis Enis 5 -1.09
Courtney Brown 1 -1.10
Andre Wadsworth 3 -1.19
Alex Smith 1 -1.33
Charles Rogers 2 -1.46
Akili Smith 3 -1.47
Ryan Leaf 2 -1.54