TexasCowboy
10-24-2007, 06:44 PM
When Seattle coach Mike Holmgren joined the San Francisco 49ers as an assistant in 1986, one of his first tasks was to go through the Sunday game films and chart tendencies of the upcoming opponent.
Yes, film. That was before the NFL switched to video tape.
That also was before it all became computerized. He did it with pencil and paper.
"I would spend all day Monday tabulating that stuff," Holmgren, now in his 16th year as a head coach, said recently.
It was an early form of compiling all the oddball statistics you often see plastered on your TV screen during telecasts of NFL games.
"Now, with computers, that's zapped out in book form by noon Monday so you can study it -- and use your time in other ways," Holmgren said.
As a result, coaches today have extra time on their hands to study statistics. But which ones do they look at?
Well, you can bet they're not all that concerned about some of the dizzying array of information that has been thrown at the fans already this season ... Tom Brady is the first to throw at least three touchdown passes in each of the first six games of a season ... The Detroit Lions set a record for points scored in the fourth quarter ... Vinny Testaverde came out of retirement and completed his first eight passes ... Devin Hester returned his 10th kick for a touchdown in 25 career games ... Brett Favre set career records for both touchdown passes and interceptions thrown ... Under coach Andy Reid, Philadelphia never has lost a game following a bye week.
Coaches have their own numbers to put under the microscope. They look at turnovers and takeaways, the obvious figures of importance -- but beyond that, they all have individual methods of deciphering statistics and what is important to them.
We surveyed 10 current and former NFL head coaches, and the numbers that concerned them varied widely:
» Yards per pass attempt. Pro football is a passing game, no question, and the proposition is that if you win the passing game, you win the game.
» Field position after kickoffs. Not the yardage on the returns, but the actual starting position of each drive. Call this "hidden yardage."
» Red zone scoring efficiency. We all know what that means -- completing a drive by scoring, preferably a touchdown. Not just scoring in the red zone, but how many points.
» Big, or "explosive," plays. Not all coaches define them the same, but in general, it's a run of at least 12 yards and a pass play of at least 20. The bigger the chunks of yardage a team can gain, the fewer chances there are to mess up on a long drive.
» And, very significantly, tendencies. As in what a team is likely to do on second-and-long or third-and-short ... or, more refined, what's the specific play or pass route that creates success or causes trouble?
Conversely, there are statistics that get discussed every day that many coaches find unreliable and meaningless. Chief among them is the passer rating system, which addresses some passing statistics, but doesn't really measure the overall effectiveness of a quarterback.
Or perhaps you didn't notice that Brett Favre and Brian Griese have comparable career passer ratings.
Here's a closer look:
Yards per pass attempt
This stat is a favorite of at least two coaches who won recent Super Bowls -- Tony Dungy of Indianapolis and the retired Dick Vermeil.
"It doesn't matter how often you throw, if you're throwing and having great success ... that's a determining factor," Dungy said. "There are times in every game when you have to throw the ball, and if you're throwing it efficiently, you're going to win most of the time."
"Yards per pass attempt has one of the most direct correlations to the won-loss record," Vermeil said. "It covers a wide range (pass attempts, completions, sacks, net yardage) and it reflects on a lot of different things."
Dungy, of course, has one of the greatest throwers of all time, Peyton Manning, on his team, and Vermeil coached the Rams when their offense reached record heights in 1999. Dungy said his reliance on the passing game numbers helped keep him and his team going a year ago when critics were harping on the Colts' problems stopping the run on defense.
Indianapolis gave up more than 185 yards rushing in four of its first seven games in 2006. But the Colts won all four. One reason? Their average gain per pass was more than a yard better than the opponents in those four games, nearly two yards better than their opponents over the course of the season.
"We weren't that concerned about (the rushing stats)," Dungy said. "They're trying to keep our offense off the field by running the ball, and they're kicking field goals, and we're scoring touchdowns."
He will take that trade-off every time.
For Dungy, the defining figure is seven yards per pass, and last season, the Colts were the only team in the AFC to average more than seven yards per pass play and the only team in the NFL to average more than 7.5. They averaged 7.53 yards per pass play on offense and 5.79 on defense.
"I know most people look at rushing (yardage) and the number of rushes," Dungy said. "We didn't want to be where we were, but there are times that can be misleading ... In the long run, you're going to have to throw the ball efficiently to win in the NFL. That's just how the game is now."
Yes, film. That was before the NFL switched to video tape.
That also was before it all became computerized. He did it with pencil and paper.
"I would spend all day Monday tabulating that stuff," Holmgren, now in his 16th year as a head coach, said recently.
It was an early form of compiling all the oddball statistics you often see plastered on your TV screen during telecasts of NFL games.
"Now, with computers, that's zapped out in book form by noon Monday so you can study it -- and use your time in other ways," Holmgren said.
As a result, coaches today have extra time on their hands to study statistics. But which ones do they look at?
Well, you can bet they're not all that concerned about some of the dizzying array of information that has been thrown at the fans already this season ... Tom Brady is the first to throw at least three touchdown passes in each of the first six games of a season ... The Detroit Lions set a record for points scored in the fourth quarter ... Vinny Testaverde came out of retirement and completed his first eight passes ... Devin Hester returned his 10th kick for a touchdown in 25 career games ... Brett Favre set career records for both touchdown passes and interceptions thrown ... Under coach Andy Reid, Philadelphia never has lost a game following a bye week.
Coaches have their own numbers to put under the microscope. They look at turnovers and takeaways, the obvious figures of importance -- but beyond that, they all have individual methods of deciphering statistics and what is important to them.
We surveyed 10 current and former NFL head coaches, and the numbers that concerned them varied widely:
» Yards per pass attempt. Pro football is a passing game, no question, and the proposition is that if you win the passing game, you win the game.
» Field position after kickoffs. Not the yardage on the returns, but the actual starting position of each drive. Call this "hidden yardage."
» Red zone scoring efficiency. We all know what that means -- completing a drive by scoring, preferably a touchdown. Not just scoring in the red zone, but how many points.
» Big, or "explosive," plays. Not all coaches define them the same, but in general, it's a run of at least 12 yards and a pass play of at least 20. The bigger the chunks of yardage a team can gain, the fewer chances there are to mess up on a long drive.
» And, very significantly, tendencies. As in what a team is likely to do on second-and-long or third-and-short ... or, more refined, what's the specific play or pass route that creates success or causes trouble?
Conversely, there are statistics that get discussed every day that many coaches find unreliable and meaningless. Chief among them is the passer rating system, which addresses some passing statistics, but doesn't really measure the overall effectiveness of a quarterback.
Or perhaps you didn't notice that Brett Favre and Brian Griese have comparable career passer ratings.
Here's a closer look:
Yards per pass attempt
This stat is a favorite of at least two coaches who won recent Super Bowls -- Tony Dungy of Indianapolis and the retired Dick Vermeil.
"It doesn't matter how often you throw, if you're throwing and having great success ... that's a determining factor," Dungy said. "There are times in every game when you have to throw the ball, and if you're throwing it efficiently, you're going to win most of the time."
"Yards per pass attempt has one of the most direct correlations to the won-loss record," Vermeil said. "It covers a wide range (pass attempts, completions, sacks, net yardage) and it reflects on a lot of different things."
Dungy, of course, has one of the greatest throwers of all time, Peyton Manning, on his team, and Vermeil coached the Rams when their offense reached record heights in 1999. Dungy said his reliance on the passing game numbers helped keep him and his team going a year ago when critics were harping on the Colts' problems stopping the run on defense.
Indianapolis gave up more than 185 yards rushing in four of its first seven games in 2006. But the Colts won all four. One reason? Their average gain per pass was more than a yard better than the opponents in those four games, nearly two yards better than their opponents over the course of the season.
"We weren't that concerned about (the rushing stats)," Dungy said. "They're trying to keep our offense off the field by running the ball, and they're kicking field goals, and we're scoring touchdowns."
He will take that trade-off every time.
For Dungy, the defining figure is seven yards per pass, and last season, the Colts were the only team in the AFC to average more than seven yards per pass play and the only team in the NFL to average more than 7.5. They averaged 7.53 yards per pass play on offense and 5.79 on defense.
"I know most people look at rushing (yardage) and the number of rushes," Dungy said. "We didn't want to be where we were, but there are times that can be misleading ... In the long run, you're going to have to throw the ball efficiently to win in the NFL. That's just how the game is now."